Tosses so far, N
Share of heads, θ̂
Precision goal ω
goal
Our hand-picked coin:
After 126 tosses
After 598 tosses
After 804 tosses
Extreme cases:
An early lucky streak
Too few tosses to accept
p-value rejects, ROPE accepts
Decision rule (HDI vs ROPE)
If you looked now
A single look at the data, not a history: a rule that says STOP here may already have stopped earlier. ROPE [0.45, 0.55]; HDI+ROPE and the p-value look from N
min
= 30 onwards; p-value threshold 0.05.